Published on December 03, 2024
In October 2024, Turkish steel enterprises marked a significant uptick in their importation of steel scrap, increasing by 2.1% compared to the previous month. This rise brings the total imports to 1.474 million tons. Despite a slight year-over-year decrease of 1.7%, January-October has seen a robust increase in scrap imports, with a year-over-year rise of 5.5%, reaching 16.48 million tons.
October Imports
During October, over 99% of the scrap imports, approximately 1.469 million tons, consisted of outdated scrap grades. The average transaction price was $400 per ton, showing a notable increase from $379 per ton in October 2023 and a slight decrease from $419.7 per ton in September 2024. This price fluctuation reflects the dynamic nature of the global scrap market.
Key Suppliers
The key suppliers of scrap to Turkey in October included:
- United States: 461.68 thousand tons (+20.3% year-over-year)
- Netherlands: 195.64 thousand tons (-21% year-over-year)
- United Kingdom: 164.17 thousand tons (+196% year-over-year)
- Lithuania: 109.45 thousand tons (+117.2% year-over-year)
- Romania: 82.57 thousand tons (-8.6% year-over-year)
Market Dynamics and Price Trends
In November, the market witnessed a significant decline in scrap prices, dropping by 5% to $344-345 per ton CFR. This marked the lowest price level in two years, driven by several factors, including oversupply and weak steel demand. The downward price trend, which started in October, continued until November.
Long-term Trends and Future Outlook
Despite the short-term fluctuations, Turkey’s overall scrap import strategy remains robust. Over the past ten months, the United States has been the largest supplier, providing 3.87 million tons of raw materials, followed by the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. This consistent supply chain underscores Turkey’s reliance on external sources for its steel production needs.
Market participants are optimistic that scrap prices will recover by January 2025. The anticipated recovery is expected to be driven by a stabilization in supply and a potential uptick in demand as steel production activities pick up after the winter months.
Historical Context
In 2023, Turkey reduced scrap imports by 10% compared to 2022, bringing the total to 18.83 million tons. This decrease was primarily due to low utilization rates at local steel mills. Turkey, ranking eighth in the world in terms of steel production, saw its steel output decline by 14% in 2023 compared to the previous year, totaling 33.7 million tons. This reduction in production significantly impacted the demand for imported scrap.
Conclusion
Turkey’s increase in scrap imports in October 2024 highlights its strategic approach to securing raw materials for its steel industry. While the market faces price volatility and supply-demand mismatches, the long-term outlook remains positive. As the global economy stabilizes and steel demand picks up, Turkey’s proactive import strategy positions it well to meet future production needs.
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