Impact of Chinese Inventories on Metal Product Prices in the Near Future

China is one of the price and trade trend setters. A survey is conducted by an organization to assess the market trends this week. Few Chinese mills and warehouses are selected to evaluate their inventory stocks and prices of five products. The products are hot rolled coil, cold roll coil, medium plate, sections, rebar and wire rods.

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC):

Prices of HRC may decline in the current week. HRC productivity of 37 Chinese steel mills was 3 million on August 10, 2022. There may be additional 7,300 tons in the supply from15-19 August. Increasing supply will cause to decline in the prices of HRC.

Cold Rolled Coil (CRC):

For Cold rolled coil, 182 warehouses in 29 cities of China are selected for the market analysis, which shows a decline of 36,500 tons this week, but stocks will remain high at 2.2 million tons. Prices of CRC will remain almost the same due to a bearish market with a nominal increase in demand from end-users.

Rebar & Wire Rod:

Prices of rebar & wire rod may have an increasing trend in the current week from August 15-19 due to inventories decreasing. Less supply will result in more prices. In a survey of 132 Chinese cities based on 429 warehouses, stocks have declined by 4.4% and reached 8.5 million tons.

Medium Plate:

Market analysis regarding medium plate is based on 217 warehouses in 65 cities in China, there is a rise of 2.6% in stocks, and the total inventory is 2.3 million tons. With increasing supplies and low demand in summer due to high temperature, prices should fall; but there will be a surge due to the rising cost of production.

Sections:

In Tangshan city of North China, Q235 150 mm square billet prices have increased by US $5.9/MT, including value-added tax, on August 14, 2022. It is expected that prices will remain fluctuating as the summer season is not feasible for steel consumption.