Published on November 29, 2024
Overview
November 2024 witnessed a notable decline in rebar prices across key global markets, driven by weak demand, economic uncertainty, and a seasonal drop in construction activities. The markets in China, Turkey, and Europe saw significant fluctuations, while the United States showed signs of stabilization.
China’s Market
In China, rebar prices fell by 4% during November, reaching $453-456 per ton FOT. This decline followed a three-month period of growth. Initial optimism, fueled by expectations of new government stimulus measures, faded as the impact of approved debt quotas proved weaker than anticipated. Concerns about increased protectionism post-US elections also dampened market sentiment.
Key factors contributing to the price drop included:
- A slowdown in the construction sector due to colder weather.
- A downturn in real estate investment has fallen by 10.3% since the start of the year.
- Oversupply and limited demand from electric arc steel mills.
Despite efforts by major producers like Zenith and Yonggang to support sales through price cuts and subsidies, demand remained weak, and a significant improvement is not expected in the short term due to seasonal factors.
Turkey’s Market
Turkey’s rebar market experienced a steady price decline, falling by 4.2% to $560-575 per ton FOB from November 1 to 27. Several factors contributed to this downward trend:
- Weak demand in both domestic and export markets.
- Falling scrap prices reached $340-345 per ton CFR.
- Increased competition in key export destinations.
Major Turkish steelmaker Kardemir cut rebar prices twice during the month, by TRY 535 per ton ($15.6) and later by TRY 505 per ton ($14.6), to stimulate sales. Despite these reductions, demand remained weak, and export offers dropped to $590-600 per ton FOB, with some deals concluded at even lower prices. Turkey’s loss of part of the Brazilian market to Egyptian rebar imports and increased competition from regional producers further pressured prices. Logistical and political barriers also limited export opportunities, contributing to the challenging market conditions.
European Market
The European rebar market showed mixed trends in November:
- Northern Europe: After three months of stability, prices fell by 1.6% to €610-620 per ton Ex-Works due to weak demand and import pressure.
- Italy: Prices rose by 3.7% to €545-560 per ton Ex-Works, driven by producers’ efforts to increase prices despite limited demand. However, financial difficulties in the construction sector restrained further growth.
In Italy, initial price increase announcements of €20 per ton were partially realized, with actual offers increasing by €5-10 per ton. Despite cautious market conditions, some distributors considered importing cheaper products from North Africa, although logistical and regulatory barriers eased import pressure.
Towards the end of the month, prices stabilized, but demand remained low, and most buyers awaited seasonal discounts. In France and Germany, prices stayed stable, but demand continued to fall. Italian producers offering lower prices put pressure on the French market, while planned production suspensions in Italian factories in December could reduce supply and support prices in early 2025.
United States Market
In the US, the rebar market showed a slight but important price increase of 0.7%, reaching $705-725 per ton Ex-Works in the Midwest region. This was the first monthly price rise since the beginning of the year and a positive signal after a prolonged decline. Key drivers included:
- Increases in base prices by producers such as Gerdau Long Steel North America and CMC.
- Improved residential construction activity and rising construction indices.
- Stable or slightly decreasing scrap prices.
Low rebar supply, driven by harsh winter weather conditions, also contributed to price stability. Non-residential construction starts increased by 14% month-on-month in October, indicating potential positive trends in the coming months.
Conclusion
November 2024 was marked by a general decline in rebar prices globally, driven by weak demand, economic uncertainty, and seasonal factors. While the Chinese and Turkish markets saw significant price drops, the US market showed signs of stabilization. The European market exhibited mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases and others declining.
In the short term, rebar prices will remain under pressure unless demand recovers and scrap prices stabilize. Positive developments, such as economic stimulus measures in China, could significantly impact global steel markets and help to level the playing field.
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